Sunday, July 31, 2011

Cleveland Indians and All-Star Trades

The Cleveland Indians definitely have not been on this side of the equation for awhile. These few days have marked 2 years since the team traded away Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and All-Star Victor Martinez, all of those coming a year after trading Cy Young winner CC Sabathia. But now, after a sizzling start that puts them still in contention for the playoffs, despite a consistent downfall the last few months, the Indians have acquired an All Star: Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado Rockies.

In a trade like this, a team may win but also lose; the debate of short-run benefits versus long-run benefits doesn't always bring conclusive results. Teams give up young prospects who have potential to develop in the future, for stars who have shown capabilities to improve a team immediately. It may be most valuable to see what prospects the Indians have gotten in giving up their recent All-Stars.

In giving up CC Sabathia in 2008, the Indians acquired players including Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley. Neither have become exceptional, but part of the reason in trading away Sabathia was that his contract was coming to an end. Knowing that he would eventually not resign with Cleveland, the Indians sought to get some plays in return while that was possible. Sabathia, meanwhile, earned 40 wins in the past two regular seasons, and already has 15 wins this season. In giving up Cliff Lee in 2009, the Indians acquired players including the active Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson. Carrasco has found some success at points this season, but as shown clearly in his loss on Friday night, he is still far from finishing developing. But it is noteworthy to point out that since leaving the Indians, Lee has pitched the Phillies (2009) and Rangers (2010) into World Series, and back in Philadelphia this year, the Philies are currently at the top in the standings. In giving up Victor Martinez the same year, the Indians acquired players including Justin Masterson, who has found most success this season. His 8-7 record may be mediocre, but he has had few run support this year. Martinez meanwhile, has been hitting above .300 ever since.

A brief look at these trade shows that for each All-Star traded away, all of whom are still prospering, one or two returns have remained in the current active roster, but none has become an All-Star. But it may simply need more development, as trading for prospects is an act of long-term investment. Now as the Indians are on the other side, some criticism has been said about how much the Indians gave up to attain Jimenez, who recorded 19 wins last season. Top prospect Drew Pomeranz and Alex White were sent away. Further reports indicate that Yankees were initially interested in Jimenez, but that Rockies were demanding too much Only time will tell whether this was the right decision or not, as is the case with investments with slowly returning dividends. But few doubt presume that given how Cliff Lee has been pitching, the Philadelphia Philies would track the prospects they lost in the deal and evaluate the costs and benefits of that trade. If the star produces immediate benefits on a grand scale, the organization would deem the transaction effective. So while the Indians ponder on whether on today's transaction was costly or valued, the ball is literally in Jimenez's hands to write the finishing ends to this story.

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Saturday, July 23, 2011

Cycling in the United States

Decisions in transportation remain crucial in determining people’s lifestyles. Due to the limitation of space to accommodate all facilities that people need to access to go about their lives, people must have a practical method to get from Point A to Point B. These decisions influence fundamental decisions, such as where one lives and works. In the United States, most people drive cars. In fact, 76% of the population drives to work alone each day, according to United States Census Bureau's 2009 community survey. In comparison, 37% of commuters in Copenhagen, Denmark use cycling as their mode of transportation. The biking enthusiasm extends to other European cities from Amsterdam to Barcelona and Paris. What accounts this vast disparity?

As with discussion of other transportation systems, one needs to begin considering the infrastructure. In the analysis of cycling, infrastructure deals with not only routes for bicycles, but also methods to store them during typical operations. European cities have designated many spaces in city centers and terminals of transit lines to securely park the bicycles. In comparison, the stations of New York City Subway do not provide adequate storage space for bikes; instead, there are ubiquitous signs stating that bikes chained onto the station railings will be removed. Furthermore, many mass transit systems in the United States are not very suitable for bikes. Many mass transit lines, including New York's heavily-used Long Island Railroad and Metro North, reserve the right to refuse cyclists service, either by restricting bikes during rush hours or enforcing strict quotas. Other transit systems may be even more restrictive; MARC trains between Washington and Baltimore only allow folding bikes. These limitations and uncertainty deter potential cycling commuters who need some assist from public transportation to cover portion of the distance.

Infrastructure may not be the only reason behind United States’ lag in cycling usage. Michael Bloomberg administration has initiated the creation of hundreds of miles of cycling lanes in New York City, yet the city only sees 0.6% of its commuters use bicycles. Not only does existing infrastructure not contribute to the rise in cycling, but creation of new infrastructure also stirs controversy. When a biking lane was erected along Prospect Park West in Brooklyn, residents there united in expressing their disapproval. Among their complaints were potential hazard for pedestrians, further congestion, and difficulty in parking. These reasoning highlight the differences in the American sociology with regards to cycling. Most Americans view cycling as a mode of recreation, rather than as one of transportation. This explains why Brooklyn residents voiced their opinion that cyclists should simply stay inside Prospect Park to ride for exercise. The idea that biking is more for recreation is corroborated by the observation that most biking lanes in American metropolises are dominated by cyclists with racing gears. Compare that scene to that of European cities, where one observes men and women in suits and dresses pedaling to work. There simply is a different established culture on what cycling is perceived as.

On average, each American produces three times the amount of carbon dioxide emissions as a person in France. Few would doubt that energy solutions are necessary. But there's much less agreement on how that is to be done. While much debates go on with regards to expanding public transportation systems, the primitive and private mode of cycling may offer some solutions. But for the United States to make cycling a viable solution like Europeans have, not only does infrastructure need to be better accommodated for cycling. More importantly, the culture must adapt to view cycling as not just a mode of recreation, but also a mode for people to move from Point A to Point B to go about their lives.

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Friday, July 22, 2011

Pi Approximation Day

Pi Day is celebrated on March 14th to reflect the three most important digits in the number's decimal form. A lesser known day is Pi Approximation Day, celebrated on July 22nd, since the fraction 22/7 closely resembles the value of pi. How good are these approximations?

The problem in evaluating the approximation arises, given that there is no true correct value for pi. It's an irrational number, and the number of decimals places that have been calculated surges into the range of trillions. Yet, only a few decimal places are needed for even the most precise calculations applicable in the magnitude of the universe. Using 15 decimal approximation given in Microsoft Excel as the accepted value, here is how commonly used approximations fare:

3.14 = 0.0507% error
22/7 = 0.0403% error
3.14159 = 0.0000845% error

The margin of error drastically decreases even further as more decimal places are added, although they become more and more practically trivial in most instances. Although the difference here is very minute, these calculations show that the 22/7 is actually a better approximation for the value of pi. So while 3.14 is still the more preferred and celebrated, Pi Approximation Day does have its legitimacy for being indeed the more accurate approximation.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Light Bulbs Debate: It's not about the Money

Should the government force citizens to purchase something more expensive in the short-run but more cost-saving in the long run? As the nation seeks methods to lower its energy usage, a 2007 legislation passed to eliminate the manufacturing and sale of traditional incandescent light bulbs, starting with the 100-watt bulb in 2012. Natural Resources Defense Council claims that by 2020, the country would save $12.5 billion annually, translating to consumers saving about $85 on their power bills.

It's noteworthy to note that the legislation was signed into law by former President George W. Bush, and now Texas Republicans are at the forefront of opposition against the measure. This year, Governor Rick Perry signed a law that exempted Texas from the new energy standards. Representative Michael Burgess further claims that “the federal government has no right to tell me or any other citizen what type of light bulb to use at home.” Indeed, the traditional light bulb has become "a pear-shaped symbol of personal freedom" to those against government's federal overreach.

It is about the personal choice. Presently, hybrid cars offer more fuel-efficiency, but at a greater initial cost. Consumers weigh the benefits and costs of the vehicle before making a choice on their own. Opposition claims that consumers should have the same right to decide and buy the cheapest option on the market. It's not about the money saved in the long-run; in Texas alone, efficient bulbs are proposed to save $1.1 billion. Rather, it's about the fear of the precedent this may create. Recently, the House voted to save the 100-watt bulb for another year. The debate is far from over. Few would disagree that the nation needs an effective method to save energy usage. But how that is done becomes and remains an intricate debate.

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Sunday, July 10, 2011

South Sudan: Birth of a Nation

Yesterday, South Sudan became the newest country when it officially seceded from Sudan. After decades of bloody civil war that left 1.5 million dead, a 2005 peace deal allowed autonomy within South Sudan. A referendum in January of 2011 showed that close to 99% of the population voted for independence. On July 9th, South Sudan finally raised its own flag, and was immediately recognized by its norther neighbor Sudan, as well as a group of Western countries. While encouraging signs were shown to ease the transition, critical concerns must be addressed to ensure peace in the fragile region.

In 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. To this date, less than half of United Nation members formally recognize Kosovo; Serbia doesn't recognize Kosovo. South Sudan, on the other hand, has seen numerous recognitions, including the first from Sudan. The marking of the independence in South Sudan was attended by Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the President of Sudan who had tried to keep Africa's largest nation united. His presence was a "key gesture of goodwill," and al-Bashir reinforces his concilatory stances by remarking that "the will of the people of the South has to be respected."

Yet challenges remain for South Sudan, both internal and external. It is one of world's least developed countries with the worst maternal mortality rate. Security is also a challenge, as there are active rebel groups within the country. On a broader perspective, border and citizenship issues with its new neighbor Sudan have yet to be determined. Dividing oil wealth is another huge challenge. Although South Sudan comprises only around a third of the former Sudan, it possesses about three quarters of the oil reserves. Although a huge step was marked in the progression toward peace with the independence of South Sudan, important new issues must be addressed diplomatically in order to avoid a renewal of warfare in the region.

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Monday, July 4, 2011

Economic Growth in North Dakota

Figures like 3.2% unemployment rate and 7.1% economic growth during last year are not numbers that the United States sees very often these days. But up north, they are the exact signs of progress observed in the nation's third least populous state. A variety of fortuitous events have led to development in North Dakota, offering a microcosm of contrast with the rest of the nation.

Oil industry in the western half of the state has helped to generate much of the growth in the region. Production has more than doubled within the past decade, and Ness has multi-billion dollar projects to improve the infrastructure there. This growth can be largely attributed to a 2008 US Geological Survey assessment that reported "an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil" in the Bakken Formation, surpassing previous estimates by 25-fold. To put in perspective, the current consumption of oil in the United States is approximately 21 million barrels per day. The growth of the oil industry has helped to spur growth in other sectors of the economy. The demand for a variety of support workers - ranging from truckers to cooks - has all increased. Furthermore, agricultural boom has also led to economic growth. The largest producer in the country of fourteen crops, North Dakota has found enormous growth in exports.

Unique about North Dakota's growth is availability of capital, namely labor. As the nation's third least populous state, it is struggling to find the labor force it needs to fill. Housing shortage has also limited the number of people coming into the region to work. As a result, relatively high wages are rewarded to even low-skilled jobs, while the state seeks to import labor force into the region. The combination of tapping the resources and exporting the goods has allowed North Dakota to thrive. However, it must sustain an available labor force to continue its growth. For the rest of the nation, it may soon realize that despite having harsh winters and population smaller than that of many metropolises, North Dakota may be the economic haven at this time.

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Saturday, July 2, 2011

Effects of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway

When it comes to high-speed railway construction, United States and China are on totally different playing fields. In the United States this year, three governors have rejected funds for the construction in their states, citing high costs and potential low ridership. Meanwhile in China, the rail network is expanding enormously. This past week, the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway was debuted, connecting the country's political and commercial hub in less than 5 hours. But the effects of the railway aren't limited to Beijing and Shanghai.

Jinan is located about 400 km south of Beijing. The capital of Shandong province, it serves as a major stop along the Beijing-Shanghai route. The railway will help to bring 100,000 passengers to Jinan. The flux of people to the region will help to revitalize tourism and investment in the area. The city has already responded by planning to invest around 350 billion yuan over the next 10 years to build an urban complex around the railway station. As demand for land around the urban center rises, so will the property price. Real estate project currently under construction one and a half kilometers away from the station has increased to 6,400 yuan per square meter, up from 4,000 yuan in 2009. The railway will enormously support the growth of cities along the railway route like Jinan. From the government's standpoint, the investment will greatly benefit the economy of Eastern China.

One industry sector that will be hurt by the railway service is the airline industry. One-way train ticket prices cost anywhere from 410-1,750 yuan, while flight costs around 1,300 yuan. In order to remain competitive, airline industries have practices predatory pricing, tremendously lowering the tickets in order to entice passengers. But airlines will need to do more than offer enticing deals to retain their customer base. Flight delays and cancellations have been consistent concerns for passengers. With competitions looming, the railway will "put pressure on the airlines to keep more on their schedule." From the citizens' standpoint, the addition of competition benefits the market as a whole, by giving industries more incentives to provide consumers with better services.

With the 90th anniversary of the formation of the Communist Party in China, many assume the railway debut as a political strategy. But if all runs smoothly, the biggest beneficiaries will be the people, visitors, and businesses of China. Investment can be a great sunk cost initially; the government spent $33 billion (US) on the track. But the benefits can spillover just as greatly given time.

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Friday, July 1, 2011

Pi vs. Tau: Tradition vs. Logic

On March 14th this year, much attention was focused on the movement to eradicate π (pi) as the fundamental mathematical constant, and replace it with τ (tau), numerically equivalent to 2*π. In his 2001 piece "π Is Wrong!", Bob Palais lists reasons why τ is the better choice. This past week on June 28th, attention was focused again on this movement to adopt the new constant, which approximates to 6.28.

Viewing from the mathematical and physics perspective, using τ as the fundamental constant makes intuitive sense. There should be little dissent in the notion that radian expression, which currently equates a whole turn to 2*π, is the formal convention in academia when it comes to circles. Redefining that whole turn to τ instead, and getting rid of the 2 term, would simplify expressions such as the equation relating linear and angular frequency (ω = τf instead of ω = 2πf) and most noticeably, the equation relating circumference and radius. One equation that would seemingly get more complicated is the area formula. Instead of A= π*r^2, it would have the additional half term, A = (1/2)*τ*r^2. However, Palais compares this new formulas to many commonly used quadratic formulas that encompasses the half term: K=(1/2)*m*v^2 or d=(1/2)*g*t^2.

Unfortunately in many instances, deriving the mathematical logic is simply not sufficient to make appreciable impact. Just like the imperial system used in here United States, it makes logical sense to adopt the metric system and avoid the costly errors in miscommunication and mixes. However, one obstacle is the short-term cost. It would be enormously expensive to replace all signs and regulations with the metric system. While replacing π in academia is not as great of a challenge (many modern academic writing still refer to archaic conventions), the bigger hurdle here comes down to uprooting the tradition. Every year, students chant the digits of π and bring circular items on March 14th. Mathematicians and physicists have dealt with calculations for centuries with π. Just because there is logic behind new and effective changes, doesn't mean that people will relinquish the old ways, even if those old ways may be somewhat more inconvenient. That degree of logical improvement, together with the degree of attachment to the tradition, will ultimately dictate whether changes can be implemented.

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