Friday, September 30, 2011

Who is Dan Johnson?

"He’s not even the 25th man on the Tampa roster. He’s more like the 32nd or 33rd or 34th man." Coming up to bat at the bottom of 9th inning, with his Tampa Bay Rays down 7-6 on the season's finale, with Red Sox ahead at the time and the season on the line, Johnson was hitting an abysmal .108 in 83 at-bats, including zero hits in all of September. Johnson quickly got down in the counts with one ball and two strikes. But the next changeup from Yankees' Cory Wade traveled down the right-field line and over the wall. Suddenly, Rays have come back from a 7-0 deficit in the last two innings. They'd eventually win in extra inning with another homer. But it was the homer in the bottom of the 9th that tied the game and forced the extras, that first goes into the history book.

Meanwhile over at Baltimore, Boston Red Sox, looking to save its season from a historic collapse, held lead into the 9th inning. Closer Jonathan Papelbon, a 4-time All-Star, could not hold onto the one-run lead. The game's final play unfolded as Outfielder Carl Crawford, who had signed 7-year, $142-million contract with the Red Sox before the season, could not make the diving catch; the Orioles scored the winning run. They weren't able to close the game and save the season. But the little-known Dan Johnson was able to lift the Ray into the playoffs.

Indeed, this is one of the signature of sports. One just doesn't know who will be the hero at the end of the night.

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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Historical September Collapses

As weather begins to chill and October rolls, America's pastime heads into the playoffs. But what baseball witnessed this September was anything short of unbelievable. On the final day of regular season, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves lost the wildcard spot after holding strong leads only earlier this season. And the fashion in which it all unwrapped today was also short of unbelievable.

On September 3rd, Red Sox held 9-game lead over Tampa Bay Rays for the wildcard. But that lead evaporated and as the day began yesterday, the teams were tied for the wildcard. Through most of the night, it looked as if Boston would wrap up the position and put a damper on their dangerous slide. They were up 3-2 as rain delay settled in the 7th inning. Meanwhile, Rays were down 7-0 against the Yankees. The Rays were down to their last strike; the Red Sox was one strike away from winning. But Rays rallied to win 8-7 against the first-place Yankees, and Red Sox managed to lose 4-3 to the last-place Orioles.

On the National League side, Atlanta Braves had 10½ games lead over St. Louis Cardinals on August 25th. Even before game on September 6th, the lad was 8½ games. But similar to slide in American League, Braves managed to lose its lead and came into the last day of the season tied with the Cardinals for the wildcard. Cardinals won its game first, 8-0 against the Astros. It was down to the Braves to save its season and force an extra game against the Cardinals to determine who wins the last playoff spot. Heading into 9th inning, Braved held onto 3-2 lead, but blew it, and finally let the Phillies score in the 13th inning to cap the ultimate collapse.

Collapses are not uncommon. But to see historical levels of collapse in both leagues, on the last day of the season, both in remarkable fashions on the last game of the season, is quite unprecedented. While collapse is one side of the equation, the final results still wouldn't be possible without the remarkable runs of the other teams. Both Tampa Bay and St. Louis played above .600 baseball to catch up the wildcard leaders. October is known for where legacies are born in the playoffs. But just as noteworthy are the remarkable stories in September that allow some of the teams to head into October baseball. From now, anything is possible. Colorado Rockies rolled their way into the final playoff spot in 2007 and went on their juggernaut into the World Series. How will the Rays and Cardinals turn out this season, after just having capped their unbelievable run into the playoff? October will tell.

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Monday, September 26, 2011

Hypothetical NYC Subway Line: Cross 125th ↔ Flushing

New York is finally getting progress on its long-sought Second Avenue Subway line. Hoping to relieve congestion on the East Side, the line is scheduled to begin operating in late 2016. It's hard to imagine any capital projects of its magnitude being implemented anytime soon. But that put offside, if there is one hypothetical line to the Subway system that could be built, it would make the most sense to construct a Cross 125th Street line through Manhattan, extending via Triboro (RFK) Bridge into LaGuardia Airport and Main Street in Flushing.

The hypothetical line would have the following stations, listed from its western terminus. Under this plan, only 1 new station (LaGuardia Airport) would need to be constructed.
  • 125th & Broadway: currently 1 train, nearby Columbia University (including the future Manhattanville) campuses
  • 125th & St. Nicholas Ave: currently A, B, C, D trains
  • 125th & Lenox Ave: currently 2, 3 trains
  • 125th & Lexington Ave: currently 4, 5, 6 trains, nearby Metro North connection
  • Astoria Blvd: currently N, Q trains
  • LaGuardia Airport
  • Main Street, Flushing: currently 7 train, nearby LIRR connection
Residents of Upper Manhattan will feel the benefit the most. Crosstown travel is burdensome for all Manhattan residents, and there exists no crosstown rail lines north of 42nd Street. Crosstown buses, including M60 going through 125th Street onto LaGuardia, faces severe congestion and stopping. The location of 125th Street is fitting, as it is about halfway between 42nd Street and upper boundary of Manhattan. Furthermore, as it is not one-way streets, it's difficult to implement Select Bus Service lines, which have been introduced on First and Second Avenues to speed up M15 service.

The line would also relieve commuters from two major Metro North stations within the city boundaries: Grand Central and Marble Hill. Grand Central would continue to serve commuters heading to Midtown or Downtown, but the 125th-Harlem station would be able to efficiently serve commuters heading especially to the West Side of the city. Many West Side workers currently get off at Marble Hill, transfer onto the 1 line at 225th Street, and make the long journey on the local 1 line. Instead, this line would allow them to stay in Metro North until 125th and quickly transfer to lines on the West Side, greatly helping those heading into Harlem, areas like Morningside Heights or Upper West Side.

The continuation of the line into Queens serves to enhance the current services of M60, which takes variable amount of time to move from Morningside Heights to LaGuardia, one of the largest airports in the nation without rail connection on the ground. The extension into Flushing provides another outlet into Manhattan, especially Upper Manhattan, from the Main Street station, which currently is the busiest station in the system outside of Manhattan. The extension to LaGuardia has been proposed recently, but rejected when residents of Astoria expressed their disapproval. Also on practicality note, it would be a massive capital project just to construct rail lines on the Triboro (RFK) Bridge.

While this line is purely hypothetical, it does offer insight into where the current system could be most improved. Currently it is most difficult to travel crosstown, especially in Uptown areas.125th Street, with its Metro North station on Park Avenue, would have the best argument to house a new line, if it were possible. The extension of that line would also help move people easily to and from two of busiest locations in Queens.

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Sunday, September 25, 2011

Congestion Charge Plan in Beijing

Earlier this month, officials in the Chinese capital said that congestion fees will be introduced on some roads to combat the notorious traffic woes in the city. The idea isn't novel; some European cities already have the practice, and New York City has also considered the plan. Beijing currently has 4.8 million registered vehicles. Measures have taken to curb that growth. Since 2008, certain vehicles have been barred from the streets depending on its license plate and the day of the week. Furthermore starting January, cap has been placed on new car registrations at 20,000 per month.

The goal of the congestion fee is to encourage public transportation usage. A senior municipal official is quoted to say that "by 2015, our goal is to have public transportation handling 50 percent share of traffic volume inside the Fifth Ring Road." However, strong measures have been taken in the past to encourage public transportation usage. The Beijing Subway has enormously expanded within the last decade to climb to worldly ranks of 4th in track length and 5th in ridership. Furthermore in 2007, the fares were reduced to a flat-rate of 2 RMB with unlimited transfers. The municipal government took on the deficit to encourage public transportation usage. While ridership has increased, so has the ownership of cars with the rise of middle-class who can afford personal vehicles.

Transportation service is an inelastic demand. An environmental activist in Beijing is quoted to say that "imposing the toll itself won't change that people have to travel long distances from their homes to work." The convenience offered by cars still exceeds that from mass transit. To truly encourage public transportation usage, mass transit simply needs to be more convenient, by exploiting the pitfall of vehicle usage, congestion. If mass transit can be much faster and more reliable, it could potentially be more convenient. A key to make faster trains is to build express lines. Currently, neither the Shanghai and Beijing Metro has express lines running parallel to local lines, as they do in some parts of New York City's Subway. Instead of focusing on express, both of the Chinese cities are currently expanding lines to new areas. While that encourages more mass transit usage from outer, suburban areas, it still leaves traveling within the city center somewhat inconvenient. By investing in express lines that could take a person from Point A to Point B faster than a car could in the normally congested streets, citizens may truly see public transportation as more convenient.

For the growing middle class, money may not be the ultimate incentive. Despite higher parking prices and other costs associated with driving, they still buy vehicles in bulks and become angered when they can't get the vehicle registration under the current quota. Lowering the costs of public transportation fares may be a miniscule amount to them. Instead, making them more convenient may be the best way to tap into their incentives and get into the heart of the congestion problem in Beijing, and other crowded metropolises.

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Thursday, September 1, 2011

Maglev Ride

There was absolutely no need for me to ride the Shanghai Maglev yesterday as I headed to Pudong International Airport. There was enough time to simply take Line 2 all the way. But more as adventure, I got off the Metro at Longyang Road Station and paid 40 RMB for an one-way Maglev ticket. The 30 km journey was completed in less than 8 minutes.

Magnetic levitation operates differently from conventional rail technology in that it doesn't use wheels, bearings or axles. Instead, the magnetic field induced on either side of the vehicle helps to levitate and propel the train. As a result, there is no rolling friction, minimal maintenance costs, and little weather-related disruptions.

While the technology may be state-of-the-art, Shanghai Maglev faces other challenges since its inauguration in 2004. The most common criticism it has received is its short length, specifically that the line terminates in Longyang Road, which is around 8 km and 5 Metro stops away from Lujiazui financial district, and even further from notable sites in the city center, such as People's Square. The need to transfer for further 20-30 min journey adds to the inconvenience. Furthermore, riding the Maglev is relatively expensive. Single-ride economy seat starts at 40 RMB with proof of airline ticket purchase, while a typical moderate-length Metro ride costs 4 or 5 RMB.

There has been long-term plans to extend the Maglev into the city center, and continuing westward to Hongqiao Airport. Shanghai is growing at tremendous pace. Its Metro only began operating in 1995, but the ridership has already surpassed that of New York City Subway to claim world's 4th spot. As constructions for future lines and extensions occur by the minute, one can only hope that Maglev will be made more accessible soon. That the technology is remarkable is undisputed; only the operations stand in Maglev's way for it to transform transportation within and beyond China's largest city.



Maximum speed in the early afternoon hours was 300 km/hr.