Sunday, October 30, 2011

October Miracle

Related previous posts: Historical September Collapses, October Surprises

This is nothing short of historical and utterly magical. The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series Friday night after defeating Texas Rangers in Game 7. Two months ago, this seemed as about as unlikely as one could get. Here's all that happened for the Cardinals to win it all.
  • Stood 10½ games out of the final playoff spot with 31 games to play
  • Stood 8½ back with 21 to play
  • Stood 3 back with 5 to play, and needed the Phillies to sweep the Braves in the final games of the regular season
  • Defeated the Phillies, which won 102 games in the regular season, and the division rival Brewers in first two rounds, both times without home-field advantage
  • Down 3-2 in the World Series after 5 games, needed to win 2 consecutive games at home
  • Rallied from being down to their last strike, twice, in back-to-back inning, during Game 6 to win against Rangers
No previous instances in sports history can parallel the miraculous accomplishments of the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. In the voice of Outfielder Allen Craig, "It's history. Our whole ride to the playoffs. Just what we did to get here. It's improbable. It's unbelievable. All I can say is, we did it."

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Friday, October 28, 2011

Staten Island: Highest Per Capita Road Tolls

Residents and visitors of New York City continuously face higher toll fees compared to the rest of the nation. While the southbound toll on Golden Gate Bridge is $6 for cash users, fees on any of the eastbound Hudson River crossing recently increased to $13 for cash users. In 2000, while the United States collected $6.6 billion in tolls, $2.0 billion came from New York state alone, while $711 million came from neighboring New Jersey. While tolls can be burdensome for commuters and tourists, nowhere is the burden heavier than on Staten Island, the city's "forgotten borough."

First, consider the tolls on bridge and tunnel crossings into Manhattan for standard cars. Note that fees vary depending on the timing and other circumstances (E-ZPass and residency discounts). Let's just consider peak-hour fees for cash payers without residency discounts, the worst-case scenario. For entering Manhattan:
  • George Washington Bridge, Lincoln Tunnel, Holland Tunnel: $12
  • Henry Hudson Bridge (crossing Harlem River): $4
  • 9 other Harlem River crossings: free
  • RFK Bridge, Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel, Queens Midtown Tunnel (all crossing East River): $6.50, although tolls are charged in both directions
  • Brooklyn Bridge, Manhattan Bridge, Williamsburg Bridge, Queensboro Bridge (all crossing East River): free
Now under the same conditions, for entering Staten Island:
  • Verrazano–Narrows Bridge: $13
  • Bayonne Bridge, Goethals Bridge, Outerbridge Crossing: $12
Not only are the tolls on bridges coming into Staten Island more expensive on average, but there are also fewer (none, to be exact) alternatives. New York state collects about $105 in road tolls per person each year, which is over four times the national average of $23.45. But the burden is even more concentrated in Staten Island, which pays nearly $293 per person. The effects aren't just felt by the residents. Staten Island suffers competitive disadvantage, as business location decisions are largely influenced by tolls.

While some may point at the free Staten Island Ferry to Manhattan, public transport is still more inconvenient for commuters and impractical for businesses. The ferry completes the 5+ mile journey in around 30 minutes. Furthermore, the Staten Island Railway (SIR) only has one line situated along the southern portion of the city. With a population of nearly 500,000, Staten Island would be a mid-sized city in the country if separated. However, its 14 miles of rail service is shorter than service in a smaller city like Cleveland. The situation is not improved when residents remember that they are officially part of New York City, which boasts the nation's most sophisticated rail network. As a result, more residents have turned to cars, but they then face the highest per capita toll in the nation. The transportation situation in Staten Island strongly reinforces the mindset of its residents that they are part of the "forgotten borough" of the city.

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Thursday, October 27, 2011

Booming Growth yet Homelessness in North Dakota

Related previous post: Economic Growth in North Dakota

North Dakota is back on the news again with its strong economic growth. With the recent discovery of ways to tap the oil fields around Bakken Formation, demand has been high to hire not only skilled labor in the field, but also people from all sectors of the industry necessary to support the infrastructure of the business. From restaurant waiters to truck drivers, companies have not only been seeking to hire multitudes, but also offering lofty compensation in hope to entice people to come to oil boom-towns like Williston, ND to work. Truck drivers can make an average of $70,000 to $80,000 a year, and some fast-food restaurants have double their wages. While the numbers certainly look great, there is a severe shortage of lodging in the area. Where six-figure salaries are offered, homelessness has become a burden.

In order to sustain this economic growth, adequate housing is necessary to sustain the population growth. Unfortunately, the pace of housing has not caught up to the pace of jobs. Only about 2,000 new housing units have been built in the past year. Fortunate people have found space in "man camps" that the oil companies have built. But many have resorted to desperate measures to lodge in their cars, claiming parking lots as their street addresses. The situation is far from ideal, but the lucrative pay nevertheless has drawn many willing to sacrifice basic living conditions.

There have been efforts to invest in this area. First Millenium Construction is building a 500-person man camp in Watford City. Jarvis Green of the company expects a "200% to 300% return on the multi-million dollar investment." The investment opportunity certainly looks bright, as the discovery and the growth around Bakken Formation have only recently begun . But while the real estate growth currently lags behind the influx of people looking to take advantage of the boom, people in the oil-towns of North Dakota live within a seemingly incongruous juxtaposition: economic prosperity and homelessness.

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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Global Airline Industry: Growth or Decline?

Recently, it was announced that economic growth in China has been slowing down as the government has taken measures to control inflation. During the third quarter, the economy grew at 9.1%, down from previous quarter's 9.5%. This has caused concern as China is the main exporter of goods to the West and area of development for many Western companies. This is particularly true for the airline industry, as rising development has led to more demand of aircraft in the region. This week, it was revealed that China Eastern airline has canceled its order of 24 Boeing 787 Dreamliner planes, citing the withdraw "due to Boeing Company's delay in delivery," rather than any economic slowdown indications. What is the forecast of airline industries given these two recent events?

After the announcement by China Eastern, Boeing remained optimistic. A Reuters article quoted Marketing VP Randy Tinseth in his statement that "as we look forward, we expect to see the Dreamliner order base increase, we expect to see more orders, we expect to see more cancellations, especially as we go through mitigation with our customers." While the development may put more pressure on Boeing to hasten its production rate to its target of 10 units per month by 2013, the outlooks seem promising in other markets. Australia's Qantas Airways, Korean Air Lines, and other Chinese airlines such as China Southern, have all remained committed to introduce the Boeing Dreamliner.

Long-term forecasts may be even more promising. According to Tinseth, "air travel in Northeast Asia is expected to grow moderately at 4.3 percent annually over the next 20 years." Indeed across the emerging markets, the demand for aircraft will remain strong for the next decades to come. Even with China's slowdown, the growth is still hovering at around 9%, compared to that of United States of Europe, which hovers between 1 to 2%. According to Parker Hannifin Chairman and Chief Executive Donald Washkewicz, China's downward trend has "been a short-lived thing and activity picks up again." The optimism is voiced through Boeing, which forecasts 33,500 new aircraft by 2030.

Despite given the recent reports of China's slowdown with its economy and the cancellation of 24 Boeing Dreamliner units by China Eastern, it looks as though that the global airline industry will see growth in the immediate future.

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Thursday, October 13, 2011

Is China Getting Richer?

People these days often hear about China's economic growth and its enormous impact on the global economy. Yes, China contributed 19% of the world's economic growth in 2010, and that figure is expected to increase to 24% this year. Western companies have invested in China to stay competitive in one of the world's fastest-growing market. This Tuesday, Boeing announced that it officially opened a service center in Beijing. China's travel is expected to grow annually at 7.6% over the next 20 years, and Boeing, which already has 800 of its airplane units in Chinese airlines, hopes to maintain the company's majority share of the market of commercial airlines in China.

But is this really indicative of China getting richer? A recent New York Times article argues that while its economy experiences rapid growth, China sees its households struggling to keep up, as those making more than the average usually save most of their earnings. While the US saves roughly 5% of the disposable income, that figure approaches 40% in China. Various factors, from depressed wages and soaring home prices, impel the Chinese to save. However, the interest rate on saving accounts are artificially low, not able to keep up with the rising inflation rate. As a result, consumption levels are low. Those who benefit from the savings are state institutions, fueling the rise of real-estate developers and government spending on railroad. As for the commoners, they have little choices. Many wish to avoid investing in the volatile stock market, and laws restrict the ability to invest overseas.

The most convenient outlet for many Chinese then, became the real estate market. Compared to the same period a year ago, Chinese investment in real estate was up 32.9% during the first half the year. Real estate prices have overall tripled in the past five years. Many have been concerned about the effects of a housing bubble burst. This is a legitimate concern for the United States, as China's growth is crucial for the multinational companies investing there; United States sold $92 billion in goods and services to China last year. But the focus still hasn't been on domestic consumption. So far, much attention has been focused on cheap land and capital for heavy investing. The soundness of the Chinese economy will need to depend on how the households can spend, not just the state corporations.

So is China getting richer? It depends on from what perspective one looks at. Is the GDP growing? Yes. Are foreign investments increasing? Yes. But are the average household better off? As ambiguous as the question may sound, the answer may just be "not exactly."

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Apple's Strategic Release of iPhone 4S

When Apple announced the debut of the iPhone 4S last week, disappointment was prevalent, as many looked forward to the release of iPhone 5. But iPhone 4S was a success. Over a million units of the phone was preordered in the first 24 hours of opening. This toppled the record held by the iPhone 4, which saw over 600,000 preorders in the first 24 hours. This time around, the numbers are greater as Sprint joined the group and also sold the phone under its carrier. But the numbers show that clearly, iPhone 4S was not a disappointment.

The judgement of who would actually buy the new iPhone was crucial in the launch of the iPhone 4S, rather than the iPhone 5. Most users of the current iPhone 4 are still under the two-year contract plan, signed around mid-2010. So Apple wasn't even targeting those users hoping to upgrade their phones. In fact, to the 70 million users of iPhone 4, Apple hoped that this wouldn't a spectacular upgrade, so not to disconcert them in being stuck to another year of contract. Instead, Apple hoped to entice users of iPhone 3G and iPhone 3GS users with a huge contrast to their products. At the same time, by making the iPhone 3GS free, Apple also hoped to entice new users to the smartphone market.

Various analysis have predicted that Apple will shatter its own records in the number of iPhone 4S units sold this quarter. That's not bad considering the initial disappointment it received after the showcase of its newest product. Consumers can only guess what will happen when Apple is most likely going to release the next generation of iPhone next summer.

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Saturday, October 8, 2011

October Surprises

During the regular season, New York Yankees won 97 games, and Philadelphia Phillies won 102 games. Yet even with the home-field advantage, neither team was able to advance out of the first round of playoffs, falling to the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively. The Cardinals, if one may recall, miraculously capped their run and got into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. They faced the Phillies, who sent former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay to the decisive Game 5 on Friday. Yet the Cardinals pulled it through. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter simply out-pitched his old former teammate on a 3-hitter.

Surprise throughout the sports nation and disappointment along the East Coast? Certainly. Coming in with high expectations, teams like Yankees and Phillies wanted nothing short of a championship. Yankees president Randy Levine recently said that without winning the World Series, the season "is a bitter disappointment and not a successful year." Similar sentiment is inevitable in Philadelphia, which immediately became everyone's favorite to win the World Series this year when Cliff Lee resigned with the team, boasting inevitably the best rotation in the League. The prediction continued throughout the season, as Phillies boasted the best record in the League from April to September.

But this is the realm of sports, where anything can happen. The Cardinals can climb from their historical September rally into the playoffs, and knock out the all-mighty Phillies in the first round. What happened in the 162 games of regular season is only an indication. Indications can predict, but not ascertain any results.

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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Livery Cab Bill Debate

Yellow taxis have become an icon of New York City, but their concentration around central Manhattan and the airports is undeniable. Many have complained that it's nearly impossible to catch a cab elsewhere in the city, and it's not difficult to note the paucity of the yellow cabs in the so-called outer boroughs. Currently, only yellow cabs are authorized to pick up passengers on the street who hail for service. To address this issue, a bill has been sitting at Governor Andrew Cuomo's desk that would authorize livery (black) cabs to pick up street hails in the outer boroughs. Currently, livery cabs pick up passengers on pre-arranged trips.

Aside from the access issue, proponents argue that this would generate millions for the city. Currently, drivers of the traditional yellow cabs spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy medallions, their exclusive right to pick up street hails within the city. By extending these medallion permits to livery cabs, "the tax revenues ... would be something like a billion dollars into the city’s budget," Mayor Bloomberg remarks.

Opposition comes from current yellow cab drivers, who argue that by leasing the right to pick up street hails to livery cabs, the value of their own medallions will be vastly diminished. On Tuesday, hundreds of cab drivers protested outside Governor Cuomo's office, urging him to veto the bill that would allow the livery cabs' operations. Furthermore, oppositions argue that "livery drivers in the outer boroughs would ignore prearranged pickups in favor of street hails."

Governor Cuomo has remarked that “the optimum goal is to design a plan that provides taxi access to the outer boroughs, access to the disabled, revenue for the city, and respects the medallion franchise.” The root cause of the problem is the current lack of cabs in outer boroughs. This disproportion is vividly illustrated by the fact that while 80% of the city's population lives outside Manhattan, 97% of the pickups are in central Manhattan or at the city's two airports, according to GPS data collected by taxi commission.

Most yellow cabs drivers stay within the airports and central Manhattan, where the demand for the cabs is the greatest. The situation is a microcosm of game theory practice. Each driver's dominant strategy is to stay in these hot-spots, for they're more likely to earn more revenue. However, if most drivers practice this method, all of them may be worse off, given that government intervention may deal with the lack of cabs in outer boroughs, through measures like authorizing the livery cabs, which would indirectly devalue all cab drivers' medallions. To settle this uneasy dilemma, an equilibrium needs to be sought that balances the desire of cab drivers to serve hot spots for more revenue, and the access for outer boroughs for citizens there. Within outer boroughs, secondary hot spots can be identified, including trains stations, shopping malls, sports venues, and other popular places. Monetarily incentives could be given to yellow cab drivers to pick up passengers from these "secondary hot spots" in the outer boroughs to compensate for their service in these less-profitable regions. This internal solution, if operational, may eradicate the need for external livery cabs and their rights to pick up street hails in the outer boroughs.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Kindle Fire Pricing

When Amazon unveiled the $199 tablet computer Kindle Fire, people began speculating that a rival product to Apple's iPad, whose cheapest version is $499, has finally arrived. Indeed, at $300 or 60% cheaper, Kindle Fire, which may lack some of iPad's functionaries, seem to be somewhat of a bargain. News came out today that Amazon might actually be losing money for each unit of Kindle Fire sold. Although estimates vary, the estimated cost put into each unit of Kindle Fire is about $210. Amazon would need to sell $10 of other goods, such as music or apps, just to break even.

Predatory pricing may be the strategy Amazon is going after. By intentionally charging a lower price, the firm hopes to entice customers. When the item is sold, also carried along is the brand name of the product and other related product. Amazon already has a huge presence in the market, and has a huge inventory of items ready to be sold, that may be compliment products to the tablet. By tying the goods together, Amazon may be hoping that the lower pricing on Kindle Fire may draw customers to buy more of its other goods. Indeed, compared to other Android competitors, "the real benefit for Amazon in entering the tablet space is the advantage of a direct, established, sales model on Amazon.com."

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Saturday, October 1, 2011

Columbia ↔ Coney Island Biking Adventure

Situated about 20 miles away from campus of Columbia, Coney Island certainly is a good destination for a half-day biking trip, to get to see the suburban portions of the city and head to the beach. The route for the return portion of the trip was slightly altered to see more different aspects.

Columbia → Coney Island
  • Hudson River Greenway: from Riverside Drive, enter from W 103th Street and head down to the lowest level, where the biking route sits next to the river
  • Warren Street: eastbound crosstown road at the tip of Manhattan
  • Brooklyn Bridge: the only borough crossing of the trip
  • Prospect Park: follow various biking routes after bridge crossing to enter the park
  • Ocean Parkway: cross through the lettered avenues of Brooklyn until the destination; this section has a highly suburban feel
 Coney Island → Columbia
  • Shore Parkway Greenway: somewhat difficult to find the entrance, but this route sits next to the Lower New York Bay, with good views of Staten Island and Verrazano Bridge; also spotted along this section is something of a rare sight in Manhattan: parking lots next to stores
  • 4th Avenue: the Greenway terminates at around 69th Street, so the northbound return journey continues
  • Manhattan Bridge: upon reaching Downtown Brooklyn, follow through various signs to find the entrance to the bridge
  • Prince Street: westbound crosstown road; highly congested route
  • Hudson Greenway: head back up to Morningside Heights