Marketing myopia is an important paper first published in 1960 by Theodore Levitt, which argues that declining industries are results of failure of management to align their business with customers' needs. Levitt cites the railroads, which "assumed themselves to be in the railroad business rather than in the transportation business." By being "product oriented" instead of "customer oriented," the railroads allowed other modes to fulfill customers' transportation needs. Similarly, Levitt argues that Hollywood incorrectly defined its business as the movies, rather than the entertainment. By embracing a "specific, limited product," Hollywood "rejected TV when it should have welcomed it as an opportunity ... to expand the entertainment business."
This analysis resonates with the concept of business cycle. During the growth phase of an industry, its "assumed strength lay in the apparently unchallenged superiority of its product." However, Levitt believes that "there is no such thing as a growth industry," as there "are only companies organized and operated to create and capitalize on growth opportunities," while those who "assume themselves to be riding some automatic growth escalator invariably descend into stagnation."
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Sunday, August 25, 2013
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Reverse Percentage Change
It takes little computation to realize that the magnitude of percentage change from a to b isn't the same as that from b to a. The jump from 40 to 60 is 50% increase, but from 60 to 40 is 33.3% decrease. What's the exact formula for converting the magnitude of percentage changes? Let a and b be any nonzero integers.
For convention, let's have these labels:
- a: starting number, 40 in this case
- b: ending number, 60 in this case
- x: change from a to b, calculated as (b - a) / a, 50% in this case
- y: change from b to a, calculated as (a - b) / b, -33.3% in this case
The goal is to derive y from x. Follow these steps:
- x = (b - a) / a
- -x = (a - b) / a
- -x * a = (a - b)
- - x * a / b = (a - b) / b
So given x as the percentage change from a to b, the percentage change from b to a is simply the - x * a / b. In this example, -(50%) * 40 / 60 = -33.3% indeed. This works when a is bigger than b as well: a = 20, b = 10, x = (10 - 20) / 20 = -50%, y = -50% * 20 / 10 = 100%.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Generic Competitive Strategies
The second chapter of Competitive Strategy looks at three approaches in "coping with the five competitive forces" outlined in the previous chapter, which are industry competitors, potential entrants, substitutes, suppliers, and buyers. The three strategies include overall cost leadership, differentiation, and focus. While they are not mutually exclusive, it is "rarely possible" to pursue multiple approaches.
Overall cost leadership entails "aggressive construction of efficient-scale facilities" to minimize cost, which provides "high margins which can be reinvested." This strategy is usually associated with high volume and market share. Differentiation sacrifices volume for perception of uniqueness industry-wide. Finally, focus strategy is "built around serving a particular target very well." Honed onto a particular segment only, focus can pursue either low cost, high differentiation position, or both.
The chapter notes that a "firm failing to develop its strategy in at least one of these three directions ... is in an extremely poor strategic situation" and "is almost guaranteed low profitability." These firms lose both the high-volume customers looking for low costs, and the high-margin business that depends on differentiation. While each of these strategies has its set of risks, these three generic competitive strategies give an intuitive explanation of the U-shaped relationship between profitability and market share, as observed in some industries.
Overall cost leadership entails "aggressive construction of efficient-scale facilities" to minimize cost, which provides "high margins which can be reinvested." This strategy is usually associated with high volume and market share. Differentiation sacrifices volume for perception of uniqueness industry-wide. Finally, focus strategy is "built around serving a particular target very well." Honed onto a particular segment only, focus can pursue either low cost, high differentiation position, or both.
The chapter notes that a "firm failing to develop its strategy in at least one of these three directions ... is in an extremely poor strategic situation" and "is almost guaranteed low profitability." These firms lose both the high-volume customers looking for low costs, and the high-margin business that depends on differentiation. While each of these strategies has its set of risks, these three generic competitive strategies give an intuitive explanation of the U-shaped relationship between profitability and market share, as observed in some industries.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Backward and Forward Integration
The first chapter of Competitive Strategy talks about structural analysis of industries, which aims to relate "a company to its environment." Among the five competitive forces surrounding a company are industry competitors, potential entrants, substitutes, suppliers, and buyers. A buyers or supplier can exert competitive force with credible threat of backward or forward integration, respectively.
Buyer can engage in backward integration by purchasing the parts it typically procures from suppliers. This poses competitive force on the suppliers. On the other hand, suppliers can engage in forward integration by expanding activity "to include control of the direct distribution of its products," posing competitive force on the buyers typically involved in the distribution. The same company can be both a buyer or supplier in different markets. A manufacturing company, for example, may be the buyer in the market for raw materials, but becomes the supplier in the market of the assembled goods to other companies.
Sources:
Buyer can engage in backward integration by purchasing the parts it typically procures from suppliers. This poses competitive force on the suppliers. On the other hand, suppliers can engage in forward integration by expanding activity "to include control of the direct distribution of its products," posing competitive force on the buyers typically involved in the distribution. The same company can be both a buyer or supplier in different markets. A manufacturing company, for example, may be the buyer in the market for raw materials, but becomes the supplier in the market of the assembled goods to other companies.
Sources:
Monday, June 17, 2013
Look Into Historical Unemployment vs. CPI Data
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes and archives monthly unemployment and consumer price index data. The CPI data is stored as 1-month percentage change, indicative of the monthly inflation rate. The current data archive goes back to 2003 for each. A quick data manipulation procedure in Excel gets each tabular output into a series output for juxtaposition.
The Phillips Curve is a historical inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation rate. The data from the 10 years here demonstrates a very strenuous inverse relationship. Here the slope of the best-fit line is -0.02135, but the R^2 value was merely 1.29%.
Sources:
The Phillips Curve is a historical inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation rate. The data from the 10 years here demonstrates a very strenuous inverse relationship. Here the slope of the best-fit line is -0.02135, but the R^2 value was merely 1.29%.
Sources:
Growing Sectors From June BLS Data
On the first Friday of every money, Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes employment reports for the previous month in the United States. In the report published on June 7th, total nonfarm payroll increased by 175,000 in May, putting the unemployment rate at 7.6%. The growth is above the 172,000 figure, which has been the monthly average over the past 12 months. The report highlights that professional and business services added 57,000 jobs in May.
A look into Table B-1, which breaks down the nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail, reveals which sectors have shown the highest consecutive monthly growth. At the levels of detail provided by the report, only 4 selected entries illustrated 0.5% monthly growth for both March to April, and April to May: employment services, temporary help services, business support services, and home health care services. Employment services have seen 1.47% increase from seasonally-adjusted payroll of 3.286 million in March to 3.334 million. Compared to last May, it has climbed by 6.44% during the past year. Temporary help services claim the honor of seeing the highest year-over-year payroll growth at 7.46%.
Sources:
A look into Table B-1, which breaks down the nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail, reveals which sectors have shown the highest consecutive monthly growth. At the levels of detail provided by the report, only 4 selected entries illustrated 0.5% monthly growth for both March to April, and April to May: employment services, temporary help services, business support services, and home health care services. Employment services have seen 1.47% increase from seasonally-adjusted payroll of 3.286 million in March to 3.334 million. Compared to last May, it has climbed by 6.44% during the past year. Temporary help services claim the honor of seeing the highest year-over-year payroll growth at 7.46%.
Sources:
Friday, May 24, 2013
Strengthening Australian Dollar and Ford Shutting Down Production
It was reported this week that after nine decades of operating in Australia, Ford will shut down production in the country due to the strength of the Australia dollar and high costs, particularly wages. Ford reported that production costs in Australia "are twice that of Europe and nearly four times higher than in Asia." The factories are planned to close within 3 years.
Strength of the Australian dollar would make it more costly to operate there. How exactly has the Australian dollar fared against other major currencies? The AUD-USD is currently around 0.97. This is actually on the lower end of the 52-week range, and further down from the peak of around 1.10 reached in mid-2011. However looking at the 5 year chart, AUD-USD was as low as 0.6 in late 2008. Since the start of 2011, it has been steadily strong at above 1. Looking at AUD-JPY, again a similar strengthening trend can be observed. After hovering around 80 for most of mid-2009 to mid-2012, it has surpassed 100 this year and currently is around 97.78. Finally, looking at AUD-EUR, the pattern can be seen as it has strengthened from around 0.5 in late 2008 to currently around 0.75, although it was as high as 0.85 in mid-2012.
Sources:
Strength of the Australian dollar would make it more costly to operate there. How exactly has the Australian dollar fared against other major currencies? The AUD-USD is currently around 0.97. This is actually on the lower end of the 52-week range, and further down from the peak of around 1.10 reached in mid-2011. However looking at the 5 year chart, AUD-USD was as low as 0.6 in late 2008. Since the start of 2011, it has been steadily strong at above 1. Looking at AUD-JPY, again a similar strengthening trend can be observed. After hovering around 80 for most of mid-2009 to mid-2012, it has surpassed 100 this year and currently is around 97.78. Finally, looking at AUD-EUR, the pattern can be seen as it has strengthened from around 0.5 in late 2008 to currently around 0.75, although it was as high as 0.85 in mid-2012.
Sources:
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Mixed Headlines Regarding Housing Market
There were mixed headlines regarding the house market today. Sales of new homes in the United States climbed to an annualized rate of 454,000 in April. This was the second highest monthly figure since July 2008. Year-over-year, the median selling price increased 14.9% to $271,600, which is the highest on record. Partially fueling the rising demand are the low interest rates. This week the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.59%.
Despite these news, limitation on home supply is put by the lack of equity to sell homes. In a report released by Zillow (NASDAQ: Z), a real estate information provider with a "database of more than 110 million U.S. homes," keeping the property listing tight are the "about 22 million Americans ... [who] lack enough home equity to move." The report stated that 44% of homeowners with mortgages had less than 20% equity in their home, and 20% is usually required to purchase a new home. This figure includes 13 million Americans, or a quarter of homeowners with mortgages, who were underwater, or owed more than what their homes are worth. Zillow projects that by Q1-2014, only about 1.4 million homeowners will regain positive equity.
Sources:
Despite these news, limitation on home supply is put by the lack of equity to sell homes. In a report released by Zillow (NASDAQ: Z), a real estate information provider with a "database of more than 110 million U.S. homes," keeping the property listing tight are the "about 22 million Americans ... [who] lack enough home equity to move." The report stated that 44% of homeowners with mortgages had less than 20% equity in their home, and 20% is usually required to purchase a new home. This figure includes 13 million Americans, or a quarter of homeowners with mortgages, who were underwater, or owed more than what their homes are worth. Zillow projects that by Q1-2014, only about 1.4 million homeowners will regain positive equity.
Sources:
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
A Look into Venture Capital Firms Behind Tumblr
Yahoo's acquisition of Tumblr was a boon for many, including Union Square Ventures and Spark Capital, the two venture capital firms who made initial investments into Tumblr during its infancy. The combined investments of $10 million translated to 47% ownership of the company, giving them a 50-fold return in the recent deal with Yahoo that valued Tumblr at $1.1 billion. The deal was also a spark for the New York start-up community, as Tumblr represents the "largest venture-backed purchase for a New York company."
Union Square Ventures, based in New York, describes itself on its website as a "small collegial partnership that manages $450,000,000 across three funds" and invests in companies that "create services that have the potential to fundamentally transform important markets." Spark Capital, based in Boston, manages about $1.5 billion. Common across both funds include Twitter.
On Tuesday, the front page of Union Square Ventures highlights the Tumblr acquisition, which characterizes Tumblr as "world's greatest platforms for self expression." Tumblr has 108 million blogs across its network, and generates about $13 million in revenue annually, which is the amount Yahoo generates daily. Nevertheless, it is the younger audience and mobile users whom Yahoo seeks to attract through this acquisition.
Sources:
Union Square Ventures, based in New York, describes itself on its website as a "small collegial partnership that manages $450,000,000 across three funds" and invests in companies that "create services that have the potential to fundamentally transform important markets." Spark Capital, based in Boston, manages about $1.5 billion. Common across both funds include Twitter.
On Tuesday, the front page of Union Square Ventures highlights the Tumblr acquisition, which characterizes Tumblr as "world's greatest platforms for self expression." Tumblr has 108 million blogs across its network, and generates about $13 million in revenue annually, which is the amount Yahoo generates daily. Nevertheless, it is the younger audience and mobile users whom Yahoo seeks to attract through this acquisition.
Sources:
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Column Generation Illustration
This example illustrates the first few steps of using column generation method to solve an integer program. In particular, this is a cutting beam example, where given beams of length L = 100, determine the minimum number of beams to satisfy demand of size n_i for length d_i: n1 = 21, d1 = 13, n2 = 39, d2 = 31, n3 = 61, d3 = 36, n4 = 14, d4 = 45
The initial objective function is to minimize x1 + x2 + x3 + x4, given the following constraints:
Objective value is 135. This is the dummy case where no cutting takes place. The dual solution is (1, 1, 1, 1), so the next LP to solve is: max p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 subject to 13*p1 + 31*p2 + 36*p3 + 45*p4 <= 100. The solution is (7, 0, 0, 0), and since the objective value of 7 is greater than 1, continue. Add this column in the next run. The pattern generated here (7, 0, 0, 0) means that 7 pieces of length 13 will be cut from the stock, whose length is 100.
Now with the addition of a new variable, minimize x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5, given the following constraints:
The objective value has decreased to 117, and the dual solution is (1/7, 1, 1, 1), so the next LP to solve is: max 1/7*p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 subject to 13*p1 + 31*p2 + 36*p3 + 45*p4 <= 100. The constraint is the same as the earlier maximization problem. The solution is (0, 3, 0, 0), so this would be the next column to generate, given that the the objective value of 3 is still greater than 1. Continue this process.
The initial objective function is to minimize x1 + x2 + x3 + x4, given the following constraints:
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | >= | 21 |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | >= | 39 |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | >= | 61 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | >= | 14 |
Objective value is 135. This is the dummy case where no cutting takes place. The dual solution is (1, 1, 1, 1), so the next LP to solve is: max p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 subject to 13*p1 + 31*p2 + 36*p3 + 45*p4 <= 100. The solution is (7, 0, 0, 0), and since the objective value of 7 is greater than 1, continue. Add this column in the next run. The pattern generated here (7, 0, 0, 0) means that 7 pieces of length 13 will be cut from the stock, whose length is 100.
Now with the addition of a new variable, minimize x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5, given the following constraints:
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | >= | 21 |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | >= | 39 |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | >= | 61 |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | >= | 14 |
The objective value has decreased to 117, and the dual solution is (1/7, 1, 1, 1), so the next LP to solve is: max 1/7*p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 subject to 13*p1 + 31*p2 + 36*p3 + 45*p4 <= 100. The constraint is the same as the earlier maximization problem. The solution is (0, 3, 0, 0), so this would be the next column to generate, given that the the objective value of 3 is still greater than 1. Continue this process.
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