Monday, June 17, 2013

Look Into Historical Unemployment vs. CPI Data

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes and archives monthly unemployment and consumer price index data. The CPI data is stored as 1-month percentage change, indicative of the monthly inflation rate. The current data archive goes back to 2003 for each. A quick data manipulation procedure in Excel gets each tabular output into a series output for juxtaposition.


The Phillips Curve is a historical inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation rate. The data from the 10 years here demonstrates a very strenuous inverse relationship. Here the slope of the best-fit line is -0.02135, but the R^2 value was merely 1.29%.

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